Role of U.S. in the Peace process in Afghanistan

After twenty years of war in Afghanistan, the United States is on the verge of packing and leaving. In the near past, unprecedented violence was recorded in Afghanistan. Since September 2020, approximately 200 assassinations have been seen in Afghanistan. The departure of the United States from Afghanistan has its risks. Many peoples in Afghanistan fear what will happen if the troops of the United States go back before the final agreement is stuck between the Afghan government and militants. The specter of civil war (1992-1996) looms large, and it threatens to undo what development has been made in the last 20 years. 

On 5 October 1999 UN (United Nations) Council approved Resolution 1267, making the committee for sanctions on Taliban and al-Qaeda. The committee imposed restrictions on their travel, arms, shipments, and funding. The United Nations (UN) moved to follow an ascendancy period for Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin laden. He guided the terrorist group from Peshawar (Pakistan) and Afghanistan in the 1980s. In the middle of 1991, Osama bin Laden came to Afghanistan. The Taliban, who rose from the Afghanistan ashes in civil war, delivered al-Qaeda shelter for terrorist operations throughout the world. 

On September 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda hijackers took over four commercial airliners. They crashed these aircraft into Pentagon (Washington DC), the World trade center (New York), and Shanksville (Pennsylvania). About 3000 people died in this attack. Al-Qaeda is an Afghanistan-based Organisation, but hijackers were not Afghan nationalists. Fifteen out of nineteen belonged to Saudi Arabia, and the leader of these terrorists was an Egyptian: Mohammad Atta. At that time, the President of the United States George W. Bush demanded the Taliban regime to “deliver all the leaders of Al-Qaida who hide in your land." At that time the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, did not comply with the President's order. 

On September 18, 2001 President of the United States George W. Bush signed into law a joint resolution that authorized the use of force against terrorists involved in the 9/11 attack. The U.S. troops with the help of the British started bombing Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. France, Germany, Australia and Canada supported the United States military operations. Within a few weeks, the Taliban retreated from their main encampments like Kabul, Jalalabad, Bamiyan, Taloqan, and Herat. The mastermind of the 9/11 attack, Osama bin Laden, also escaped from the Tora Bora caves that are present in the southeast of Kabul. 

The United Nations invited the main Afghan factions, leaders of the Northern Alliance to a conference in Bonn Germany. The leaders signed the Bonn agreement. The agreement was endorsed by United Nations Resolution 1383. At that time, Iran supported the Northern Alliance. With the help of Iran, Hamid Karzai was installed as an interim administration head. He created an international peacemaking force to maintain security in Kabul city. The Bonn agreement on December 20, 2001, was followed by Resolution 1386 that established the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force). 

On December 1, 2009 President Obama declared a major accretion of the United States mission. In a speech to national T.V., the President committed an extra 30,000 forces to fight against the Taliban. The president said these military troops will increase our capability to fight and train the Afghan security forces. They should create the environment to transfer the responsibility to Afghan authorities. This was the first time in 18 years of the Afghan war a time frame was set on U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. But the President of the United States did not share the detail of how long a drawdown would take. 

On December 5, 2011 after ten years, the first international conference that discussed the political future of Afghanistan was held in Bonn Germany. In the conference, it was decided the international troops would withdraw in 2014. In this conference the head of interim government Hamid Karzai said, the country will require approximately $10 billion per year for reconstruction, security, and tackling corruption. The conference failed to attain its objectives. 

In January 2012, the Taliban struck a deal to open a central office in Doha (Qatar). It was a promising move toward peace talks. America saw it as a critical political settlement to ensure security and stability in Afghanistan. But the Taliban suspend the primary talks, accusing Washington of defaulting on promises to take significant steps toward a prisoner exchange. Leon Panetta (USA defense secretary) announced the plan of the Pentagon to conclude missions in Afghanistan in the middle of 2013. He also announced to shift the main security role in Afghanistan to Afghan security forces. After that, many events served as blows to the mission. It included an accidental burning of the Holy Quran as well as the murder of a 16-year-old boy. At that time, the president of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai demanded the foreign troops be withdrawn from military posts present outside of the village.  The analysts thought that it was a major event that greatly accelerated the transition pace from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) to Afghan control.

After handing over the control of the remaining 95 districts of Afghanistan to Afghan security forces, the coalitions led by U.S. focus shifted to Afghan military training as well as special operations against terrorism. The handover took place on the same day as the announcement that U.S. officials and Taliban would resume talks in Doha, Qatar. It was the place where the Taliban just opened their office. To maintain military presence in Afghanistan, the United States needed to negotiate an agreement with Hamid Karzai as his mandate was expiring in December 2014. 

On 27 May 2014, President Barack Obama announced a schedule for the removal of U.S. military forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. In the first phase, after the combat mission at the end of 2014, 9,800 military troops were limited to training security forces and leading the military against the ruminants of Al-Qaida. The newly elected president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani, signed an agreement with his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah.

In an address to US military troops, President Trump gave his policy in Afghanistan. The policy of Trump differed from the policies of Obama in Afghanistan. He said that the withdrawal of the US military would be based on ground conditions in Afghanistan. He invited India to help in the rebuilding of Afghanistan while criticizing Pakistan for sheltering insurgents. Then president of the United States Trump said that “A political settlement with the Afghan Taliban is far off.” 

According to the US Defense Department from October 2001 to December 2019 USA spent $778bn as military expenditure. Many other agencies of the United States government spent $44bn on the reconstruction of Afghanistan. In these agencies USAID (US agency for international development) also spent lot of money for the rehabilitation of Afghanistan. On spending these huge monies in Afghanistan, there is little to show for it. Afghan Taliban control much of the areas of Afghanistan.  Afghanistan remains the world's largest source of migrants and refugees. Approximately thirty-eight thousand civilians and twenty-four hundred American soldiers died in this war against the Taliban.  On 28 February, 2020 the President of the United States Trump said “we are working to finally end America's longest war and bringing our military troops back home”.  

Negotiations between the United States and the Afghan Taliban in Qatar (Doha) entered their highest level. They were building on momentum that started at the end of 2018. The talk between the top leadership of the Afghan Taliban Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Unites States special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad centered on the US withdrawing its military troops from Afghanistan and in exchange Taliban promising to block the international group of terrorism from operating on the soil of Afghanistan. In 2018, then president of the United States Trump ordered the military to begin the withdrawal of approximately 7,000 military troops from Afghanistan. At the same time, he also decided to withdraw military troops from Syria. 

In 2019, developments between U.S. officials and the Afghan Taliban were the clearest indication that the United States was determined to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban and its religious partners perceived that determination as an opportunity. Indication from Qatar (Doha) encouraged optimism about ending the longest war of America. The withdrawal of NATO troops and US military was a top demand by the Afghan Taliban. The Doha dialogues also were the first time that the United States had publically agreed to the insistence of the Taliban that bilateral talks on terms for withdrawal of military troops were contingent upon any negotiation of peace. 

Zalmay Khalilzad told The New York Times that the Taliban and U.S. agreed in a principle on an outline for the deal. According to this deal, the Taliban would not allow any international terrorist organization or individual to use the soil of Afghanistan for terrorist activity. In return the US would withdraw military troops from Afghanistan. He further said that as the framework of the deal, Taliban would require intra-Afghan dialogues and ceasefire. Many unresolved issues were, how to structure the intra-Afghan dialogues? How all the stakeholders were sitting around the table after a long war?  Would the Afghan Taliban agree to a ceasefire? The answer to all these questions is still unclear. 

A complete ceasefire is unfortunately not in the initial stage of negotiations. If the Afghan Taliban agreed to complete ceasefire, they were concerned about losing their battlefield foothold. A first complete ceasefire in June 2018 was unsuccessful.

The Taliban official said that “the main objective of the last ceasefire was to exhibit to the international community that if Afghan Taliban want to end fighting, they can.” 

The Taliban appear to be determined to continue fighting. These terrorist groups have historically grown in power from their actions on the battlefield, not from dialogues and politics. The Taliban said the reason everyone is talking with us is our fighting capability and military powers; otherwise, nobody would have been talking about reconciliations and peace. In a few respects, the scenarios of peace agreements threaten the existence of the Taliban in its present form. They do not appear likely to give up the fight without assurance they will maintain negotiation power. 

Intra-afghan dialogue is another important factor in the peace process of Afghanistan. For the first time, Afghan Taliban representatives, civil security, and the Afghan government met face to face in Qatar (Doha). The direct negotiation that was delayed because of the swap of prisoner proposed between the US and Taliban initial deal began after the Afghan administration completed the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners. The initial talks surrounded both sides' willingness to bring peace to Afghanistan and establish an outline for the security of Afghanistan after the complete removal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. 

The new President of the United States, Joe Biden, has a detailed and longer history of understanding and experience with tensions of Afghanistan than any other previous president. Biden has constantly supported the lightest military foot printing in Afghanistan. He completely focused on counter-terrorism.

It seems that the new president of the United States will continue the negotiations with the Afghan Taliban and relieve people of the U.S. from this long war. Peace in Afghanistan is better for the United States and neighboring countries of Afghanistan. Peace in the region can give prosperity to the people of Afghanistan. United States and other developing countries will see more returns on investment from their efforts in education, health, creation of jobs, better lifestyle and reconstruction of Afghanistan than spending trillions of dollars on war. 

Muhammad Qusain S.

Dorchester, Canada

https://www.upwork.com/o/profiles/users/~016eeb415613350c80/

References

https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/20/us/politics/afghanistan-troop-withdrawal.html

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/interpreting-us-talks-taliban

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/intra-afghan-negotiations-set-begin